written by Mike Barrett
Wednesday, 14 July 2021
A brilliant tournament. A truly fantastic final taken all the way to extra time. And, after a day of incredible tension, the result we all wanted. Can it really be two years to the day since the Cricket World Cup final? Good times never seemed so good.
Anyway, a lot has happened since the summer of 2019.
You might have noticed there has been this thing called Covid dominating our lives for well over a year now. No one needs telling just how hard this period has been for pretty much everyone, and many families have felt the brunt in the most tragic way imaginable.
However, as time moves on, it’s increasingly clear that for some, in purely financial terms, it’s been a pretty decent time.
Last week saw the release of the latest Household Savings Ratio figures, showing household savings as a proportion of household disposable income.
Moving our way through the pandemic the ratio increased from 8.9% in January-March 2020 to 25.9% in April-July 2020, a record high since the series began in 1987. This decreased to 14.3% in July-September 2020 as the economy opened up, increasing again in October-December 2020 to 16.1%, and then again in January-March 2021 to the current figure of 19.9%.
All these figures are way above anything else we’ve seen this century. Right now, people are saving more than ever.
This trend is explored in more detail with the “(Wealth) Gap Year” research, released on Monday by the Resolution Foundation.
The report finds that the Covid-19 pandemic is the first UK recession in at least 70 years in which wealth has increased.
However, these gains have been uneven with families at the bottom of the income distribution much more likely to have drawn down savings or increased debt than those at the top of the distribution.
All this means that the pre-pandemic trends of growing aggregate wealth and increasing wealth gaps between households has continued during the crisis.
Asset price appreciation was the primary driver of this rise in total wealth, however without stating the bleeding obvious, this means you need to actually own assets to benefit. The richest households have become richer, and the poorer, poorer.
As we start to plot our “cautious but irreversible” next steps, the big question is whether this trend will continue.
The RF research indicates that not many families are planning on spending their pandemic savings, and also plan to continue to save. Closer to home, regular TCWU readers will recall Q1 was a particularly bumper quarter for most advised platforms. Q2 figures are starting to come through as we speak, and we’ll let you know the score in a few weeks’ time.
Tomorrow (Thursday), Nikhil Rathi will unveil his first Business Plan as the FCA’s Chief Executive. This will also include a wider view on the FCA’s role out in a post-Covid, post-Brexit and increasingly post-carbon economy.
It will be interesting to see how this will impact the advice and platform sectors, but perhaps more importantly, the FCA need to work alongside other policymakers to start to address this increasingly large wealth gap.
HERE COME THE LINKS
See you next time
Mike